Author: Alfa Team

In the 2017/18 Serie A season, a subset of teams turned relatively modest expected goals (xG) numbers into disproportionately high goal tallies, indicating that their finishing outpaced the quality and volume of chances they created. From a statistical perspective, these teams often sit on the overperformance side of variance, raising questions about how long such efficiency can last and whether future results are likely to drift back toward their underlying process. Why Low xG with High Goals Suggests Overperformance xG provides an estimate of how many goals a team should score given its shot profile, averaging over large historical samples…